Phuket's property market is splitting in two. Here is the dated evidence.

The phrase is ours; the pattern is theirs. Colliers Thailand, as reported by The Nation on 3 February 2026, counted 45,066 new homes launched on Phuket between 2021 and 2025, worth THB 469,720 million, with 2024 the peak at 18,515 units. It expected launches to ease to around 6,000 to 8,000 condominiums in 2026. CBRE Thailand, in its release of 19 August 2026, reported residential sales up more than 45 per cent in the first half of 2026 against the first half of 2025.

Put those two together and the shape appears: fewer new buildings arriving, more homes selling, and the selling concentrated where the product is hard to copy. A beachfront parcel inside a thirty-year-old estate cannot be launched again next year. A one-bedroom condominium two kilometres from the sand can, and was, many times over.

Every figure in that strip is Colliers Thailand’s, as quoted by The Nation on 3 February 2026. The firm’s own report page would not open for us, so we have not read the underlying tables and we say so. The named strong areas in the same report were Bang Tao, Cherng Talay, Rawai, Kata, Karon and Phuket Town.

What the count does not say is how many of those 45,066 homes have an owner. A launch is a sales event, not a sale. The number tells you how much was offered, which is exactly why the 2026 forecast matters: an island offering 6,000 to 8,000 new condominiums instead of 18,515 is an island whose developers have read the same figures you are reading.

CBRE Thailand’s release of 19 August 2026 put Phuket residential sales up more than 45 per cent in the first half of 2026 against the same period of 2025, with international purchasers at 67 per cent and Thai buyers at 33 per cent. It named the United Kingdom, Russia, Canada, India, the United States and several European countries as the sources, and Bang Tao and Cherng Talay as the island’s most sought-after locations. Its head of Phuket sales, Prakaipeth Meechoosarn, said the market “remains highly attractive to buyers”.

A brokerage’s sales growth is its own book, not the island’s registry, and we read it that way. It is still the only first-half 2026 sales figure published by a firm with a Phuket office, and its two named shores are the two shores where almost every address on our register sits.

All four figures are from C9 Hotelworks’ Phuket Hotel and Tourism Market Update 2026, published in March 2026 and read on its own page. They are hotel figures: a room rate is what a visitor pays for a night, and it says nothing about what a home earns or is worth. We print them because they show the same split from another angle. Rates rose fastest on the two shores with the fewest rooms, Surin and Bang Tao, while occupancy fell island-wide.

The pipeline share is the forward-looking line. If about thirty per cent of 41 new hotels land on one shore, that shore’s restaurants, clinics and beach clubs are being built for more people than live there now. That is a fact about infrastructure, not a promise about prices.

In a release of 28 September 2026, Banyan Group Residences said its luxury sales value on Phuket rose 900 per cent year on year, to about USD 50 million, across the Banyan Tree Beach Residences addresses Oceanus, Varuna, Aegir and Nammu, and described the island’s market as “becoming more polarised”. In its own release of 25 September 2026 it said five of Oceanus’s sixteen homes had sold, one of them “believed to be one of the highest value condominium transactions recorded in Phuket”, with no price given.

These are the developer’s own figures for its own estate, not island-wide statistics, and we have not verified them. A nine-fold rise from a small base inside one master plan is consistent with the research above; it is not evidence for it. We are one of Banyan Group’s appointed sales agencies, which is one more reason to label the number rather than lean on it.